Forecasting

Fload projects your app's future performance using historical trends, seasonality, and automatic model selection. See where your metrics are headed — not just where they've been.

How it works

The forecasting engine analyzes your historical data to detect:

• Trend direction — growing, declining, or stable
• Seasonality — weekly or annual patterns
• Volatility — how stable the metric is
• Mean reversion — whether the metric tends to return to a baseline

Based on these characteristics, it automatically selects the best statistical model for your specific data and explains why that model was chosen.

What you can forecast

Ad spend metrics are intentionally excluded — campaign budgets are human decisions, not organic trends that can be modeled.

Forecast output

Each forecast includes:

• Historical data — your actual past values
• Projected values — where the metric is heading
• Confidence interval — upper and lower bounds (95% confidence)
• Trend direction — up, down, or stable
• Trend strength — 0–100 score indicating momentum
• Model explanation — which algorithm was selected and why

Default: 52 weeks (1 year) forward. The forecast window is configurable.

Reading the results

The confidence interval shows the range Fload expects your metric to land in. A wide band means high uncertainty (volatile data); a narrow band means high confidence.

The trend strength score:

• 0–20: Effectively flat
• 20–50: Mild trend
• 50–80: Strong trend
• 80–100: Steep sustained trend

How to use it

1. Go to Forecasting in the sidebar
2. Select an app
3. Choose a metric to forecast
4. Adjust the forecast window if needed
5. Review the chart and model explanation

You can also ask Chat: "What does my revenue forecast look like for Q4?"

Requirements

Forecasting requires at least 90 days of historical data. Newer apps or recently connected data sources may not have forecasts available yet.